By Dr Hlumelo Mgudlwa (PhD)
For the first time in over 30 years, African National Congress, has lost national elections even though it remained a major party determining and leading the coalition government. This comes after a dramatic and a steady decline in their electoral performance over the years. In 2004 under the stewardship of former President TM. Mbeki, ANC outperformed all the previous years, reaching its peak performance at 69,7%, which enabled it amend the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa unilaterally. From then on it declined steadily to a point where it got 40,2% losing a number of provinces including KZN and Gauteng.
Leading to the election of 2024, Secretary General Fikile Mbalula had rang alarm bells that ANC would be lucky if it reached 30% noting the prevailing tense political atmosphere. He was as expected dismissed by those who continued to cling on the previous successes of the party, as being pessimistic and lacking in self-confidence and a prophet of doom. A popular view that has been used over the years even when citizens took to the streets over poor service delivery at the backdrop of chronic and devastating corruption allegations against senior politicians.
The decline of economic growth influenced by a number of factors including international markets and mainly to suffocated local markets, led to massive job losses and helplessness. Youth felt the pain more than any other group, whereas the elderly that had witness and felt the harsh hand of apartheid were slowly withering away, gradually replaced by the younger ones with no allegiances to any of the liberation movements ushered a gradual shift in political landscape of South Africa.
ANC internal conflicts over policy direction and leadership of the party led to a number splinter parties/groups such as United Democratic Movement (UDM), Congress of the People (COPE), Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and Mkhonto Wesizwe Party (MKP). With each of splinter groups took away from the party and contributing to the electoral dexterity to win election convincingly. MKP, the last party to break away from the ANC took a significant portion of the votes more especially in KZN and in GP, two of the most populous provinces in the country. Coupled with the general dissatisfaction of the overall populace of the country ANC dipped below 50% in the national elections forcing it to join hands with unlikely parties such as Democratic Alliance (DA), and Freedom Front Plus (FFP), both on the extreme opposite end of the political spectrum. A move that rattled number of senior leaders including those from KZN and GP. The two provincial leaders became vocal and vehemently opposed to the idea and made their position public, something some within the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC did not take kindly more so the top six of the party, leading to the dissolution of the leadership in those two provinces. The party blamed the two provinces for their misfortunes in the last elections and went to reconfigure their leadership hoping that it would resolve their electoral challenges.
This misdirected approach has failed to acknowledge a couple of fundamental shortcomings of the ANC over the years. That the party has been declining over the years and there is nothing new that was done at national level to change course. The internal skirmishes have often made it to the public domain further tainting the image of the party. Joblessness, rising levels of poverty coupled with persistent loadshedding with no end in sight gave opposition parties such EFF wind under their wings and propped their electoral confidence. The breakaway of MKP led by the former President Jacob Zuma became a final nail to seal off ANC misfortunes in the last elections. All of these challenges had very little or rather nothing to do with the leadership of the two provinces, but rather more with the internal challenges ANC faces including political positioning for their upcoming elections. This failure to address the actual and fundamental challenges facing ANC will continue to plunge ANC into deeper and deeper political wilderness. Unless, an honest, hard decisions are taken on what is pulling the ANC aground, it will be impossible for it to change course and for it to reclaim its former glory.
